Twenty years ago, we were surprised by the success of the “Southeast Asian tigers” (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), achieved in the second half of the 20th century. They have increased the volume and unit value of their exports, globalized their brands and increased the standard of living of their population. A good number of countries decided then to step up the promotion of their exports, the internationalization of their supply chains and the signing of trade agreements between countries and between regional blocs. Today, twenty years later, these initiatives show mixed results.

The government announces a conservation debt swap that would generate more than $1,100 million in savings for Ecuador

Vietnam has gone from exports of $16,700 million in 2002 to exports of $335,792 million in 2021 (United Nations International Trade Center), for an increase rate of 1,910%. It is even more interesting to note the drivers of this growth. In 2002, 70% of Vietnam’s exports came from oil and derivatives (21%), primary agricultural products (19%), clothing and footwear factories (27%), and electrical and electronic machinery (3%). In 2021, on the other hand, 70% of its exports consisted of machinery, parts and mechanical, electrical and electronic equipment (46%), clothing and footwear (14%) and furniture, iron and steel and plastic (10%). . During this period, its GDP per capita increased from US$435 (2002) to US$3,756 (2021), an increase of 763%, and foreign investment varied between US$2,000 and US$20,000 million per year, approximately. In addition, the poverty incidence rate decreased from 29% to 6% in 2018 (World Bank).

The unknowns of the free trade agreement with China

Twenty years ago, Ecuador began to live dollarized. Despite the loss of devaluation as a factor of competitiveness, exports increased between 2002 and 2022, from 5,000 million dollars to more than 32,658 million (an increase of 549%). In 2002, 80% of Ecuador’s exports came from oil (41%) and agricultural, fishery and aquaculture products (39%). In 2022, oil exports fell to 35% of total exports, and agricultural products, fishery products and shrimp accounted for 45% of annual exports. The latter is mainly motivated by the growth in exports of shrimp and other traditional and non-traditional food products that have stood out in the last decade. At the same time, in these twenty years, Ecuador’s GDP per capita from USD 2,184 in 2002 to USD 6,321 in 2022, which represents an increase of 189%. We are doing well, but we could do better and faster.

Argentina is debating dollarization

The above forces us to renew our old determination to diversify exports towards products with higher added value. However, it must be supported from multiple spheres: the transformation of technical and technological education and interventions to promote production in the sectors with the greatest potential, combined with trade opening policies, investment promotion and bureaucratic simplification, among other major challenges. That we can agree on long-term plans. Make it a commitment for the next twenty years. (OR)