After three months of slowdown, economic activity in June surprised by growing at a rate of 3.44%, driven by the positive performance of the manufacturing sector, as well as mining and hydrocarbons, which advanced 5.99% and 2.99%, each. Both activities together represent more than 30% of the GDP according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).
sectors in recovery
In June mining and hydrocarbons recovered after falling steadily since February. In this segment, the hydrocarbons subsector registered a positive variation of 14.19%, due to the greater exploitation of natural gas (36.66%), oil (17.75%) and natural gas liquids (0.88%). . While metallic mining increased by 1.14%, due to the higher production of copper (7.99%), molybdenum (9.53%), iron (3.83%), among others.
In this regard, the economist Armando Mendoza points out that the performance of this sector is associated with international demand, but “above all with the evolution of social conflicts, which on many occasions translates into the paralysis of projects.”
For its part, manufacturing achieved its greatest advance of the year due to growth of 9.82% in the primary subsector and 4.16% in the non-primary subsector.
“(Growth in) the primary sector, which is more linked to the processing of mining products and other export sectors, as long as there is a good demand and international prices, it should be maintained”, Mendoza comments. He adds that the performance of the non-primary subsector will depend on domestic demand.
First semester at 3.5%
The accumulated national production grew 3.54% in the first half of this year; meanwhile, the annual figure for July 2021-June 2022 reached 5.51%.
The annualized result coincides with what was recently expressed by the Minister of Economy, Kurt Burneowho assured that Peru must recover an economic growth rate of 5% per year to absorb approximately 300,000 young people who enter the labor market.
Armando Mendoza indicates that to achieve this level of growth, public investment in projects must be accelerated, as well as through bonds or transfers to the population.
Likewise, it specifies that the Government must generate stability in key sectors such as agriculture and production, and in investors.
In this sense, it was found that General government investment increased by 28.9% year-on-year in July, with which progress was made in the execution of the three government instances. The greater investment of the national government and local governments stood out, at 34.8% and 30.4%, respectively.
Between January and July, general government investment increased by 7.3%.
Fiscal deficit will be 2.3% in 2022 and 2023
Peru will achieve a fiscal deficit of 2.3% of GDP in 2022 and 2023. The figure is lower than the estimated average for Latin America and the world in the next two years, according to the latest report by FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast LatinFocus.
According to analysts, Latin America’s average fiscal deficit will be 4.6% in 2022 and 2023, and the world’s will be 4.3% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2023.
Experts also forecast that the fiscal deficit in Peru will be 2.1% of GDP in 2024, 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.
Dear All. The BCRP forecasts that this year it will grow 3.1%; meanwhile, the MEF confirmed its estimate and reduced it from 3.6 to 2.2%. The World Bank and the IMF forecast 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively.