It’s official, since the end of April, India has become the most populous country in the world, surpassing China. According to UN estimates, based on census data and birth and death rates, India now has a population of at least 1,425,775,850 people, or 1,425.7 million. It is the first time since the UN started keeping records in 1950 that China has been knocked out of the top spot.

However, the news has not been widely received as one sign of India’s growing status as a world power.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin controversially suggested that even if India had more people now, China had more and more “talent”.

This leads to the question of what is the broader meaning, apart from symbolism, ofl the fact that India is becoming the most populous country in the world.

India’s challenge to reap the demographic dividend

Srikanth Kondapalli, professor of China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, says some of the responses were biased and racist against India. “We believe population is an asset, not a problem,” he told DW.

point to that the average age in India is 27 years, below the world average, he says this will help the country reap a “demographic dividend”.

“Basic indicators are moving forward,” he said. “Our literacy is growing and so are our health care indicators. Today we are the fifth largest economy in the world and we plan to be the third largest by 2030.”

India has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and the World Bank expects the country to have a growth rate of about 6.9% by 2023. The IMF forecasts average growth of 6.1% over the next five years.

While the country’s young population is often seen as an asset, high youth unemployment is a problem.

The urban unemployment rate hit 10.1% last December, and post-pandemic layoffs are a growing problem. For young, highly skilled workers, the lack of skilled, better-paid jobs is particularly acute.

In manufacturing centers, this has pushed the unemployment rate up to nearly 20% in some cases.

He unemployment and inflation have become two of the most important India’s political troubles ahead of general elections due to be held in May 2024.

For China, India’s lead in terms of population is more than mere symbolism. Although China’s economy is four times the size of India’s, Beijing is concerned about the aging population. The number of Chinese over the age of 65 will double by 2050, placing a huge strain on the current workforce.

The greatest, but not a superpower

Kondapalli claims that while it is true that China continues to outperform India on key indicators such as literacy and health, the difference is not as great as described by Beijing. However, he emphasizes that population growth does not mean that India will soon become a superpower.

“India has no ambition to become a superpower,” he said. “We’ve seen Xi Jinping say China wants to be central, but no Indian leader has ever said India wants to be a superpower.”

However, China no longer has one of the necessary pillars to pursue that status – namely the country with the largest population in the world. Once India gets used to that position, ambitions may change.