Optimism of the MEF is not felt in homes in the country

This past week, the Government, through the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), reduced the estimated GDP growth for this year from 3.5% to 2.5%. Likewise, the private investment (a key indicator) would close, for the second consecutive year, with a fall of 0.5%.

Despite this lower growth, Alex Contreras, head of the MEF, stressed that Peru will be the leading and most solid economy in the entire Latin American and Caribbean region. According to numerous economists, Peru needs growth rates of at least 4%.

Thus, the MEF optimism It is not reflected in the daily life of all Peruvians. Only at the end of 2022 was the highest inflation recorded in 30 years (8.46%) reported and by the end of March it stood at 8.40%.

Another wake-up call is given by Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP), which in a recent survey (cut to March 2023) warns that 46% of people have stopped consuming food due to lack of income, while 6 out of 10 people (66%) reduced their rations in the last 3 months. In this line, 30% indicated that the day before they did not consume meat and 35% stopped eating milk more than 5 times in the last 3 months.

Likewise, compared to the pre-pandemic, no progress has been reported in the fight against informality.

According to the latest INEI report, 2,119,300 citizens work precariously, which represents 19.5% more than in 2019.

In addition, nominal income during the first quarter was S/1,841, which symbolizes in real terms an 11% drop compared to the pre-COVID-19 era.

GDP limitations

For the economist and professor at PUCP José Távara, the GDP measurement It is a very imperfect indicator of well-being, because it does not take into account important aspects for the growth of society, such as access to people’s basic needs, or it is based only on readings of activities that do not directly affect citizens. so a rise has no impact on their lives. “GDP may be growing, but benefiting very few. In the current condition, we have 8 million people in the informal sector with a very great vulnerability, ”he referred to La República.

low growth

The recent World Bank revision for global growth 2023 was 2%. In this sense, the projections for Peru are also short. “Expectations are even reduced to 2.7% or 2.8%, this is less than half of what the growth rate was about 10 or 15 years ago,” explained economist Juan Carlos Odar, who added that Despite this reduction in projections, “it seems that it continues to be above what is reasonably foreseeable and supported by public spending,” he noted.

Hunger worsens in Peru

Approach. Carolina Trivelli, Principal Investigator of the IEP

The main conclusions of the survey conducted by the IEP is that the hunger situation in Peru is very serious and has worsened compared to last year. This is affecting the most vulnerable: children and women.

It must be ensured that people have access to resources to feed themselves adequately. We also need a national strategy to face hunger and someone to lead it.

Families are paying the costs of hunger today, but all Peruvians are going to pay it in the next two decades due to the problems of malnutrition and lack of early childhood development that citizens who have been poorly fed all this time will have.

The word

Alex Contreras, Minister of Economy and Finance

“My message is that they trust their Minister of Economy and the Executive team who is working on that goal (…) Do not lose hope, that is my message”.