At the end of March, the assets managed by mutual funds reached S/28,499 million, a decline of -1.14% compared to February (S/28,816 million) and a drop of -4.78% compared to the last 12 months, according to the Association of Mutual Fund Administrators of Peru (AAFM). In addition, the number of participants reached 340,364, which represents a regression of -0.29%, compared to the previous month, and a loss of -4.09% compared to the last year. However, when compared to pre-pandemic levels, the numbers are rising. In 2019 it closed with 435,847 investors, which means that, so far this year, mutual funds have lost around 95,483 users.
The drop in recent months and years is mainly related to the local and international context, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, world inflation and the rise in interest rates. Federal Reserve (Fed). “On the Peruvian side, due to its own political situation, there was disinvestment, capital outflows and devaluation. That explains the fall,” said Fernando Osorio, general secretary of the AAFM, to La República. Likewise, the decline in the equity and fixed income markets, which is already recovering, also marked a downward pattern. “At a global level, the growth of monetary policies has led the markets to correct and that is what has caused the funds to fall back,” said Sebastian Documet, general manager at Renta 4 SAB Peru.
Along these lines, the rise in interest rates, which occurred in all the world’s central banks, also included Peru, which increased from 0.25% to 7.75%. This made credit more expensive, but increased the profitability of the fixed-term deposit rates of banks and savings banks, which are even paying 8% to their clients. This context could explain why many investors migrated or saw a new safe opportunity in deposits, given the risks that the funds began to represent.
“Investing money in a fixed deposit is, in the short term, safer and more profitable than the investment fund, than depending on profitability, and, at this time, variable income is very volatile,” said Jorge Luis Ojeda, professor of finance from the Business Faculty of the UPC. However, he specified that this “devaluation” is temporary, since the funds have a general tendency to rise in the long term.
Despite this scenario, in the future, a change in trend is expected after the consecutive fall during the first quarter of 2023. This is because the funds are projected to collect the new rates that “will be as competitive as those of the markets banks,” said Osorio. In this sense, to date, the expectations for medium-term debt funds are more positive because, by lowering rates, profitability will rise.
However, for variable income funds, the investor market is still short, but for the second half of the year it is expected to have a clearer picture regarding the stock market in the United States, Europe and Asia. It should be noted that there are currently approximately 192 mutual funds in Peru, of which 40 are in national currency and 152 in dollars. In this line, the greatest demand occurs in those of investment in debt, which add up to 69.79% of participants. “Fixed income is the market that will have the most demand, both institutional and retail, the latter is a segment for which administrators are now focused on creating products for retail investors,” added Osorio.
amounts. Users can invest in dollars from US$1,000 or less than US$500. Advantage. Users who invest in an international instrument through a fund must pay only 5% tax.
Fernando Osorio, Secretary General of the Association of Mutual Fund Administrators of Peru
“The funds that are going to have the best performance are all the fixed income ones, which will be more competitive with the banks. Those of equities are still waiting for clarity in the international stock market”.
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