In 2023, Ecuador will be one of the countries that will grow above the regional average, according to the latest calculations presented this morning by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Nigel Chalk, acting director for the Western Hemisphere at the IMF, reported that the growth of the region for in 2023 it will be barely 1.6%. This is due to the current economic contraction, which is related to global financial conditions, as well as the slowing of the economy, which is no longer at the same speed as when the post-Covid recovery began.

He reminded that the region already had a growth of 7 percent in 2021, 4 percent in 2022, and in 2023 it is believed that this figure will be 1.6 percent.

Within this regional behavior, Ecuador it would have a growth of 2.9% in 2023, and by 2024 it would be located at 2.8%. The projected result for 2023 will be higher than most countries in the region, surpassing countries such as Peru (2.4%), Uruguay (2%), Bolivia (1.8%), Colombia (0.9%), Brazil ( 0.9%) and Argentina (0.2%). Although countries like Guyana (37.2%), Venezuela (5%), Panama (5%), Barbados (4.9%) and Uruguay (4.5%), on the other hand, outperform the Ecuadorian economy.

Chalk talked for a few minutes about the situation in Ecuador, when he was asked if the IMF would give the country a loan because of the recent natural disasters. The spokesperson of the IMF recalled that the organization and Ecuador recently concluded a successful program and assured: “We have a close and solid relationship with the Ecuadorian authorities.”

He admitted that they had discussions about financing from the IMF, but the official request did not arrive, so it is still too early to comment on the figure for a possible loan.

In this same line, Minister of Economy and Finance Pablo Arosemena, When asked by this newspaper, he said that the entire budget is currently financed. However, he commented: “All multilaterals have opened the door for us to request or execute conditional credit lines.”

Meanwhile, Chalk, although he was questioned about the political problems in Ecuador, preferred not to comment on the possibility of the impeachment of President Guillermo Lasso., but he said the economic literature shows that uncertainty is bad for consumption and investment.

He explained that it is difficult for consumers and businesses to project or plan in an economy of uncertainty. For Chalk, the sooner the problems that create such uncertainty are resolved, the better.

More generally, a senior IMF official advised that in most cases governments are seeking to adopt a generally restrictive approach while providing targeted support to those most affected by the cost of living crisis.

For Chalk, governments must preserve social programs. He also indicated that despite the fact that the social situation in the countries of the region is fragile, there is room for reducing the inefficiency of public spending, as well as for redesigning the issue of taxes to a more progressive policy (who has more, pays more).

The results of the IMF are known in the middle of the organization’s spring meetings. This meeting was also attended by the Ecuadorian Minister of Economy, Pablo Arosemena, who participated in a series of meetings with representatives of multilateral organizations.

In one of the latest, on the morning of April 13, Minister Arosemena signed with Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, Vice President of the World Bank, loan agreement for 200 million dollars for additional financing projects focused on social protection

In the previous days, the IMF also published data on global growth. There, he indicated that global growth will fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023.

A stabilization of 3.0% is expected in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to experience a particularly pronounced slowdown in growth, from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023. In a reasonable alternative scenario, with increased stress in the financial sector , global growth will slow to around 2.5% in 2023, while growth in advanced economies would fall below 1%.