The lack of confinement of markets in China has contributed to decongesting the global growth figures for 2023, anticipated this Monday the world Bank (BM) during the first day of its spring meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Thus, the head of the multilateral organization, David Malpass, announced a progress of three tenths from 1.7% in January to 2%, a figure that will be confirmed in the next report that he presents regarding the recovery of various economies, among which which highlighted the US and some European nations.
malpass He said he expected the Asian giant – which these days is accelerating the signing of trade agreements with the yuan as the currency of exchange, instead of the dollar – to grow 5.1% this year, some eight tenths above the previous forecast. However, he suggested slower activity in the second half due to rising energy costs and doubts about the health of the banks.
“This is an upward revision and is due, in part, to the better prospects in china after lockdown lifted“, confirmed the head of the WB.
For her part, the president of the IMF, Kristalina Georgievainsisted that India and China will occupy 50% of world economic growth in 2023, “which will grow less than 3%.”
Earlier this year, the World Bank projected that per capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies will average 2.8 percent over the next two years. Photo: diffusion
Peru off the radar
For the former Minister of Economy and Finance Luis Castilla, this scenario translates in Peru in two ways: through the commercial channel, with a slight growth that accommodates rising prices of raw materials; and greater risk aversion, which would push capital flows towards safer assets.
The executive director of Videnza Institute recalled, in this sense, that the dynamics of emerging countries is different from that of more developed economies. Proof of this is that the latest revision of the BCRP Peruvian GDP growth rate for 2023 cut from 2.9% to 2.6%.
Castilla associated this with the fact that, mainly, inflation remains high despite the need to fight against it without generating instability, but it has led to an increase in international rates with peaks of almost 5% in one year in the US, which “led to stress for second-tier entities that generates volatility” in the global financial market.
“It is an issue that is not going to dissipate in the short term. and that in some way constrains a major revision of growth in the world,” said Castilla.
Crisis. 31.8% of the Peruvian population lives in households with incomes below the poverty line, according to the BM.
Life jacket. The WB announced a meeting with the IMF to set goals that resolve the debts of poor countries.
Infographic – The Republic
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