Dollar would close 2023 at S/3.82, forecast economic agents

Most of the expectations of economic actors regarding the exchange rate in our country fell in March, according to the latest Survey of Macroeconomic Expectations, prepared by the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP).

Thus, the exchange rate expectations for the end of 2023 are between S/3.82 and S/3.85 per dollar and an expected range between S/3.83 and S/3.90 by the end of 2024. By 2025, it is expected to be between S/3.80 and S/3.90 per dollar.

By sector, the expectation of the exchange rate for economic analysts fell from S/3.85 in February to S/3.82 in March. By 2024, a rebound is expected to S/3.85 and in 2025 to S/3.87.

For agents in the financial sector, the expectation remained at S/3.85, but it was reduced from S/3.85 to S/3.83 in 2024. It remained at S/3.80 for 2025. Finally, the expectations of non-financial companies placed the exchange rate at S/3.85 compared to S/3.90 in February. For 2024 and 2025 it remains at S/3.90.

It’s still a crisis dollar

The dollar in the first quarter of this year has been affected by the downward revision of the world growth projection, as well as by the banking crisis that affected some financial institutions in the US and Europe, added to the persistent inflation, says Omar Azañedo, CEO of Noncash.

However, it points out that an exchange rate above S/3.80 continues to be a “crisis dollar”.

On the other hand, it stands out that although the sol is one of the strongest currencies in the region, it has had a depreciation of around 15% compared to its pre-pandemic levels.

“The sol continues to be one of the strongest currencies in the region, not because it is beginning to gain value against the dollar, but because it isIt has depreciated much less compared to other currencies”he warns.

Data

Accumulated. The dollar closed on Wednesday, April 5, at S/3.7710 and achieved a decline of -3.73% so far in 2023.

Dear. The BCP foresees an exchange rate of S/3.80 for the end of 2023.