Import prices could grow by 11% internationally and consumer prices by 1.5% until 2023.
The United Nations warned Thursday that higher shipping rates would imply price inflation for consumers next year, unless supply chain problems caused by the pandemic are resolved.
The UN trade and development agency (UNCTAD) indicated that import prices could grow by 11% internationally and consumer prices by 1.5% until 2023.
“Consumer prices will grow significantly in the coming year until disruptions in the freight supply chain are unblocked and traffic jams at ports and terminals are resolved,” UNCTAD stated in a 2021 report on shipping.
Global supply chains came under unprecedented demand since the second half of 2020 as consumers preferred to spend on goods rather than services during lockdowns caused by the coronavirus.
This caused saturation of the cargo capacity of the ships, lack of containers and manpower and congestion in the ports.
At the same time, this saturation led to a record in freight prices “on virtually all container trade routes,” the report says.
“This boom in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socio-economic recovery, especially in developing countries,” said the agency’s secretary general, Rebeca Grynspan.
In fact, consumer prices should rise 7.5% in island developing states and 2.2% in less developed countries, above the 1.5% expected globally.
UNCTAD notes that the pandemic magnified the industry’s previous problems, such as a lack of manpower or a gap in infrastructure, and also exposed its vulnerabilities.
Even so, the impact of the pandemic on maritime trade was lower than initially expected: in 2020 it contracted by 3.8%, but should grow by 4.3% in 2021.
The agency forecasts an average annual progress of 2.4% between 2022 and 2026, but warns of “increased risk and uncertainties.”
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It also urges to accelerate vaccination among the 1.9 million maritime crew, with only 41% fully immunized.
The pandemic, however, can bring a lasting transformation in the sector, thanks to the development of digital commerce that “can generate new business opportunities.” (I)
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