He country risk of Ecuador, the indicator that measures the market’s lack of confidence in the country meeting its credit obligations fell, reaching 1,859 points on March 1 197 points. The lack of support for the report recommending the impeachment of President Guillermo Lasso approved by the National Assembly and the recovery of crude oil prices could be the clear reasons why the indicator eased slightly, standing at 1,662 points on March 7. Nevertheless, it is still one of the highest in the region. This is the opinion of the consulted experts.

Alberto Acosta Burneo, editor weekly analysis, considers that the risk of the country is Ecuador skyrocketed due to troubling news of a possible impeachment trial, however, little by little, the initial euphoria led to disagreements in the Assembly. The news has been evaluated and there is an understanding of the true dimension of the problem, which even has to go through constitutional control and therefore the country’s risk reflects the new reality.

Despite the decline, Acosta Burneo explained which is also a high indicator that keeps the financial market closed for the country. He said that the market will continue like this throughout the Government.

Santiago Mosquera, economic analyst and dean of the UDLA business school, agreed that the main argument for the decline in country risk and less investor unrest would be the lack of agreement within the Assembly. among the members of the assembly who voted for a political trial on Saturday with those promoting the action, namely members of the UNES assembly. This, to a certain extent, takes away the word from the initiative.

For Mosquera, those who voted for did not understand that there is no solid case, and he believes that, if it is finally given, the consent will be weak before the Constitutional Court, which is why it will probably be rejected. In that sense, he said the impeachment probability is losing steam.

Another issue that could have contributed to the improvement of the indicators would be that Ecuador returned to pumping crude oil, after a relatively short break, caused by the incident in the Marker River (El Reventador area). It is about the fact that there was a suspension of pumping on February 22, which continued between February 28 and March 1 and 2.

He further indicated that the question mobilizations are still present in the psyche of investors. They are waiting to see what happens in the coming weeks. For Mosquera, “Ecuador does not have major economic challenges, but politics is a problem.”

In the meantime, Minister of Economy, Pablo Arosemena Marriot, He also opined last Tuesday that while there is economic security, the country’s high-risk problem is political instability. As an example of policies that provide certainty regarding an economic issue, Arosemena noted that the year started with lower taxes. For example, the foreign exchange outflow tax (ISD) fell from 4% to 3.75%. In addition, VAT has been reduced for the first holidays of the year, and now the same measure is expected for Easter.

Meanwhile, it was also decided to reduce certain taxes on consumption and weapons, so that security companies can supply and refurbish their weapons and support the security issue.

Additionally, He assured that the idea of ​​paralysis arouses rejection in people, and even those who want paralysis avoid using the word refer to his actions.

However, he recognized that political actors influence stability with their statements. These statements are equivalent “put a stick in the bicycle wheel” of the economy, he said. He explained that the earliest maturity of the debt is 2026, and for this reason the markets are wondering if we will have political stability in the future.

In any case, he commented that Ecuador, like several countries, has challenges, because 2023 is the year of a potential global recession. He even said that several countries have revised their growth forecasts, but in the case of Ecuador this has not happened.

Ecuador had a significant increase in the country’s risk, which places it in third place in the region. Since March 7, it has been in first place Venezuela with 35,312 points; Argentina follows with 2045 points. Ecuador is placed at 1,662 points, doc El Salvador has 1388 points.

Ecuador remained below the risk of El Salvador. But after the elections in February, the indicator increased significantly and now our country exceeds it by almost 300 points.