Deceleration. During December, national production reached 0.86%, its lowest figure since February 2021. Sociopolitical conflict has not yet been fully reflected in the indicators. Fishing production closed the year with a fall of 13.74%.
Despite the elimination of almost all the sanitary restrictions required by the coronavirusthe Peruvian economy failed to grow as expected during 2022.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), the Peruvian GDP closed last year at 2.68%, a rate lower than the 2.8% and 2.9% forecast by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). ) and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
In said period, volatility was a constant, and since the fourth quarter the dynamism began to fade, they assured from Comexto the point that in December production rose just 0.86%, its lowest level since February 2021.
On the other hand, from the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), warn that the 2022 GDP result was lower than the average of 4.6% obtained in the previous two decades, and even without considering the recession generated by Covid-19, for the first time in 18 years managed to exceed the Latin American average, projected at 3.6%.
It could have been worse, but mining prevented it
In the last month of 2022, the mining and hydrocarbons sector has been key with its growth of more than 9% to prevent the slowdown from not being so pronounced, according to the director of Phase Consultants, Juan Carlos Odar.
Thus, the INEI details that in December the metal mining subsector rebounded 11.05% thanks to higher volumes of iron (99.4%), copper (19.2%), lead (3.2%) and tin (2 ,3%); particularly due to the start of the commercial operations of quallaveco (Anglo-American).
However, in the annual reading, the mining and hydrocarbons sector it grew 0.35% and had negative results in six months.
“Although it was a positive surprise, December’s 12-month growth was the lowest of the year and the only one below 1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the activity indicator continued its downward trend, which would have been maintained in January,” he added for La República.
first ravages
Odar maintains that the latest report already reflects a marked slowdown in areas such as transportation and restaurants and accommodation, as a first effect of the social demonstrations, which began on December 7 after the failed coup of Pedro Castillo, the start of the Dina Boluarte regime and the request for a constituent assembly.
For this reason, transportation and storage rose 2.40% in December, its lowest rate since March 2021; while in restaurants and lodging the rise was 5.76%.
While manufacture it fell 4.65% due to the 8.11% contraction of the non-primary subsector, especially in intermediate goods (those that make the final product, at -9.84%), for consumption (employees by the consumer, -7.14 %) and capital (machinery, -14.53%).
From ComexPeru they assure that “the violence behind social protests continues to harm the performance of multiple sectors” and, if it continues, “the growth of the economy for the coming months would continue to be limited.”
canvas fishing
In 2022, fish production fell 13.74%, although in December the drop was only 2.8%, far from the 48.5% seen in November.
The recovery of the fishery was limited by the lower landing of marine species (-16.71%) intended for indirect human consumption or industrial use, such as the preparation of fishmeal and fish oil, which fell by more than one million tons (21.86%). Other sectors that ended the year in the negative tranche are telecommunications and other information services (-1.30%) and financial and insurance (-6.96%).
Concerts were key to GDP growth
The category other services contributed 0.73 percentage points (pp) in national activity as a result of concerts by foreign artists such as Bad Bunny, Daddy Yankee, Kiss, Coldplay, Avril Lavigne, Marc Anthony, Don Omar, Mike Bahía, among others. , as well as the recitals of national orchestras.
It is worth noting that, until November, the Sunat It had already notified that the sale of food, beverages, and promotional items at 21 concerts nationwide moved more than S/7 million. Even, after Bad Bunny’s recitals, the public spent more than S/1 million additional.
They are followed by accommodation and restaurants (0.51 pp), transport and storage (0.46 pp) and commerce (0.36 pp), mainly.
Infographic: The Republic
Source: Larepublica
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