Good omen from the Government for mining: $9,217 million in exports in 2029

The Government calculates that for the 2029 mining exports will reach a total of $9,217 million thanks to the entry of several mining projects over the next few years. This is triple what Ecuador now exports. is that the 2022 would have closed with $2,673 million mining exports, according to the latest calculations by the Ministry of Energy and Mines.

Whether these optimistic figures are met will depend on whether the government follows through on its offer to defend the responsible mining industry, while declaring illegal mining a security threat. That’s how he considers it Walter Spurrier, director of Weekly Analysis, in a report on the behavior of the various industries in the country.

Thus, according to Spurrier, the increase in mining exports that would start in 2023, always according to the projections of the Ministry of Energy, would close at $2,862 million. The figure is not much higher than what was achieved in 2022, because the production of the two large mines that are currently producing in the country would continue: Fruta del Norte and Mirador. However, in 2024 it is expected that foreign sales of mining materials will reach $3,255 million, with the start of exports from the La Plata mine.

Instead, by 2025 the contribution of Copper Route, Curipamba and Loma Larga. Thus, in that year it would reach $3,911 million.

The great leap would rather take place in 2026 with the entry of the export of Mirador Norte. Spurrier explains that this would be the continuation of Mirador – a mine managed by a Chinese company – and that these investors have waited for the first Mirador mine to generate resources to be able to invest them in North viewpoint. In that year, exports are expected to increase to $6,175 million. Meanwhile, in 2028 with the entry of Warintza y Cangrejos would reach an export of $6,628 million.

For Spurrier, Cangrejos would have no problem with the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie), due to its geographical location in the province of El Oro. In 2029, exports of Rattlesnake would lead to reaching mining exports of $9,217 million, as had been commented.

At that time, according to the analysis, it would be very possible for mining to catch up with oil exports, especially since this activity is not expected to grow significantly.

When asked if the political environment and the opposition of the indigenous sector to mining could allow a development of this type to take place, Spurrier comments that he has learned from the very first source, President Guillermo Lasso himself, that after having held talks with mining investors in Davos, has decided to give greater support to responsible mining.

In this sense, it is expected that the mining cadastre will be opened, which will mean new investment in prospecting and discovery of new resources. Likewise, there will be a second and third generation of mining production. This is positive, because over the years there will be various projects at various stages: prospecting, production, export.

He also considers important the announcement that the Government has made to defend mining camps from all attacks. For Spurrier, this would be a response to the announcement of war that Conaie has made. For the expert, if President Lasso manages to comply with these measures, the growth of mining will be a reality. In any case, this will be subject to the Constitutional Court putting more locks on mining activity, in which case there would be no such expansion.

On the announcement made by the regime last Thursday, the Chamber of Mining of Ecuador, through its president, María Eulalia Silva, He “congratulated” the Government for declaring illegal mining a threat against State security. The executive also urged the Judiciary to join the “crusade against illegal mining.” “Security zones should be established near mining districts. This does not mean that human rights will be violated, but that the communities in these areas will be protected. It also does not mean that the police become security companies for legal mining companies.”, he indicated.

Copper

According to the Ministry of Energy, in 2022, copper and its concentrate were the most exported mining products in the sector, with a value of $1,163.87 million, which represented 46% of the total, mainly from the Mirador mine ( Zamora Chinchipe).

Prayed

It is followed by gold and its concentrate with $747.77 million, that is, 30% of mining exports. The remaining 24% corresponds to the export of other minerals, with $607.35 million. (YO)