The Area of Economic Studies of the Credit Bank of Peru (BCP) reported that if the protests and roadblocks continue in various parts of the country, the projection of GDP growth that it had estimated for this year at 2.3% will face downward risks.
On the other hand, the BCP projected that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) could raise its reference rate to 8% in the first quarter of 2023 and cut it during the second half of the year, therefore, it would close 2023 in 6 75%
However, he warned of the risk of lower cuts if new factors, such as road blockades and agricultural supply due to weather factors, prevent a sharp drop in inflation and his expectations.
The Macroeconomic and Markets report also indicates that the proximity of the electoral calendar could lead to postponing and/or reducing the BCRP rate cut so as not to affect the rate differential and avoid exacerbating depreciatory pressures on the exchange rate.
BCRP raises reference rate to 7.75%
Last Thursday, January 12, the BCRP agreed to raise the reference interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%. With this, it continued with the adjustments of the monetary policy position.
A first factor that influenced this decision is the inflation rate, which increased from 8.45% in November to 8.46% in December, due to higher food prices.
Meanwhile, the 12-month inflation rate excluding food and energy fell from 5.71% to 5.59%. Both indicators were above the upper limit of the inflation target range.
Source: Larepublica
Kingston is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
