Risk of blackouts recedes, but leaves an urgent warning for future droughts

The ghost of electrical blackouts, which for a few days returned to haunt among the fears of Ecuadorians, seems to be leaving dissipating as the rains return and with it hydroelectric generation grows. However, what happened already constitutes a first call of attention of what could happen in the future, for example, in the next dry season. Thus, experts warn of measures that must be taken immediately to avoid future problems.

Normally the hydroelectric has represented the 90% of energy production and 10% is generated through thermal power plants and a very small contribution which comes from alternative energies such as wind and gas.

However, of the From January 1 to 12 –according to data from the National Electricity Operator (Cenace)– hydroelectric generation dropped to 61%. In any case, on January 13, a 80%, which gives the authorities a space of tranquility.

The Minister of Energy, Fernando Santos, indicated that last Friday it was learned that there was a significant increase in rainfall in Paute and also in Coca Codo Sinclair. In the case of the Coca River, the increase in flows has not yet generated a reactivation of the regressive erosion that threatens the capture of the power station. Thus, according to Santos, both the increase in rainfall and the possibility of importing energy from Colombia and the entry into operation of several thermal power plants (which use fuel) make it possible to rule out blackouts or rationing.

The minister noted that a problem that exists is that the 90% of hydroelectric generation is located in the Amazon sector and only 10% to the Pacific side. This means that when there is a drought in the Amazon area, which is normally between November and February of every year, production falls. This year, however, the dry season has been particularly strong.

According to the data of the Electricity Corporation of Ecuador (Celec), the electrical map is made up of 52 generation plants: 14 hydroelectric, 37 thermal and one wind.

Among the Amazon hydroelectric plants that deliver the most generation are:

• Paute Molino, Paute Mazar and Paute Sopladora, fed by the Paute River and belonging to the Celec Sur Business Unit.
• The Agoyán and San Francisco power plants are fed from the Pastaza River and the Pucará, from the Pisayambo lagoon. These belong to the Hidroagoyán Unit.
• The Coca River, on the other hand, moves Coca Codo Sinclair, with its business unit of the same name. These are the ones that have received the most punishment with the dry season.
• The Gensur Unit manages Delsintanisagua, which moves along the Zamora River.

For the Pacific side, and with less generation, there are:

• Minas San Francisco, fed by the Jubones River (Celec Sur).
• The Baba and Marcel Laniado power plants, which are fed by the Baba River and the Daule Peripa dam, belong to the Hydronation Unit.
• Manduriacu is the plant that is fed by the Guayllabamba River and belongs to the Coca Codo Unit.
• Finally, the Hidrotoapi Unit manages the Sarapullo power plant (one of the two Toachi Pilatón power plants), which is fed by the Pilatón River.

The rest of the plants are thermal and belong to the Electroguayas, Termogás Machala, Termo Manabí, Termo Esmeraldas and Termopichincha units.

Saints said that for several years governments they relied on hydroelectric generation and neglected the maintenance of the other plants. He even mentioned that Celec’s previous manager, Nicolás Andrade, had let an Esmeraldas plant go out of service due to a problem with an insurer. It was also known that in the same administration, in November, one of the two turbines of the San Francisco plant was withdrawn from operation. This despite the fact that his stop was scheduled for March.

For his part, Fernando Salinas, an energy expert and professor at the University of the Americas, believes that the dry season in 2023 is the prelude to a possible energy crisis in 2024. if homework is not done well. He explained that the country’s demand grows at around 4% per year, which means that new plants with a capacity of 160 MW per year must be incorporated into the National Interconnected System.

What are those duties?

In the first instance, it indicates that the new tender for Campo Amistad, because that will make it possible to ensure natural gas in the medium and long term. “Natural gas is essential for Termogás Machala because it provides strength to the national electricity system,” he says.

agrees with the theme Jorge Luis Hidalgo, energy expert and manager of GreenPower. He explains that the drought suffered in these weeks could cost the country due to increased costs for the purchase of electricity from Colombia and Peru and due to the importation of diesel, according to figures from Minister Santos himself, between $400 million and $600 million.

“The most ironic case is that Termogás Machala has been modified so that it can also generate with diesel”, he comments. The issue is not convenient for the pocket of the State if one takes into account that a million BTU of diesel costs the State $28, while domestically produced natural gas costs $3.8 at the wellhead and up to $8 as LNG. In other words, if $100 million is spent on the purchase of diesel, $30 million would be spent on domestically produced liquefied natural gas.

Hidalgo says that knowing that the upcoming dry season could be even more severe, the first thing the authorities should do is speed up the tender for Campo Amistad, which could supply natural gas to Termogás Machala and the new 400 MW Termogás that is in the process of bidding. He pointed out that the minister has breached his commitment to put that field up for bid before the end of 2022.

Another issue to be resolved is Coke Elbow Sinclair. Salinas comments that the hydroelectric plant that provides around 26% of the country’s energy is at serious risk before it goes out of operation due to the problems inherent to the regressive erosion of the Coca River. In this sense, it considers that the contingent works must be carried out urgently to delay the regressive erosion in Coca Codo Sinclair and accelerate the construction of the Renewable Energy Block projects.

About the topic, Santos has indicated that the intention to negotiate with China the delivery to the builders of the plant so that they can manage it is still valid. and take care of remedying the damage. Sinohydro will have to return the money invested by Ecuador and a contract will be signed to buy electricity from them at a reasonable rate. Negotiations will begin in the coming weeks.

Salinas believes that in the medium term it is necessary to replace obsolete thermal plants with plants with a range of lower emissions. Also that transmission capacities be increased in the international energy links with Colombia and Peru.

In the long term, in accordance with the Electrification Master Plan, the group of centrals of the Santiago project. Another element that should be explored in our system is storage. of energy with reservoirs and hydroelectric pumping stations that allow security of water resources even in droughts.

Meanwhile, Hidalgo points out many other errors in the management of electricity: the Shushufindi substation, which has been energized and operational since 2017 ($27 million investment), is not connected to the Shushufindi refinery despite consuming 60 MW with imported diesel. At the same time, the lighter gas tender does not award. There is a 12 MW turbine that Petroecuador has in customs for four years, the underutilization of the turbine loaned by Celec for the Esmeraldas refinery that is 42 MW and only requires 12 MW. (YO)