Most business expectations in the optimistic tranche

For the second consecutive month, macroeconomic expectations evolved positively, according to the latest survey conducted by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).

And it is that all the indicators of current situation and expectations showed an improvement compared to the previous month. As a result, 10 of the total indicators were located in the optimistic section, while this figure was 4 last September, which reflects a greater dynamics of the economy and the generation of jobs.

The survey carried out by the issuing entity reveals that expectations about the 12-month economy went from 45 to 51 points, thus leaving the pessimistic section to be in the optimistic one.

Meanwhile, although the expectations regarding hiring of three-month personnel improved, they are still in a pessimistic stretch with 47 points.

However, the perception of the 12-month hiring of personnel continues to be optimistic.

For the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), this result reflects the confidence of companies and investors for the good management of macroeconomic policy and the country’s recovery process.

In this regard, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Pedro Francke, said that a sign of investor confidence is the high demand that occurred when the Government came out to sell the bonds of the Peruvian Republic.

“The BCRP regularly conducts an expectations survey, asking 200 entrepreneurs how they see the economy in 12 months. The BCRP survey of expectations that was carried out last week and is published indicates a clear and strong recovery in business expectations, which now move to optimistic terrain ”, explained Francke Ballvé.

For Esan professor Jorge Guillén, this improvement in expectations includes the changes in the ministerial cabinet and the ratification of Julio Velarde in command of the BCRP, as well as the appointment of the three directors appointed by the Executive Power.

However, the professor indicated that work must still be done to strengthen business confidence, as there are still questions that remain to be resolved.

Guillén said that the appointment of the other three directors of the BCRP to be appointed by the Congress of the Republic would help to strengthen the confidence of investors.

Investment recovers

The BCRP survey also reflects that there is an improvement in investment expectations.

Thus, 12-month company investment expectations went from 49 to 52 points, going from the pessimistic to the optimistic section between September and October.

The MEF specified that this important recovery of expectations occurs in a context of rapid improvement in private investment, which continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels.

He explained that in the third quarter of 2021, private investment would accumulate four consecutive quarters of growth above its prepandemic levels, in line with the favorable performance of its leading indicators.

And it is that the internal consumption of cement grew 16.7% in the third quarter of 2021 (compared to the third quarter of 2019, the increase is 19.5%); while the leading indicator of electricity production grew 3.5% in October and accumulates six months of growth above previous levels.

Another indicator that reflects the recovery of private investment is the import of capital goods, which is 7% above 2019.

It is important to mention that the importation of capital goods refers to machinery and equipment, which is the basis of productive investment.

Likewise, Minister Francke specified that there is a commitment from companies to invest in the country.

“With the President of the Republic we went to inaugurate and sign the contract by which US $ 700 million will be invested in the airport Terminal [Jorge Chávez]. We have had a dialogue with the Yanacocha company and they have already started a private investment of US $ 2,100 million for their Yanacocha Sulfuros project, “he said.

On this point, Guillén said that given the rise in mineral prices, especially copper, Peru must continue to bet on carrying out mining projects.

The Minister of Economy also highlighted that, within the framework of the request for delegation of powers, additional measures were included to boost public and private investment.

These measures would benefit the 54 projects prioritized in the National Competitiveness Infrastructure Plan (PNIC), which are valued at S / 114,040 million, as well as complementary works for an approximate S / 3,610 million.

Jobs are recovering in metropolitan Lima

The Minister of Economy, Pedro Francke, pointed out that a better expectation of businessmen is also seen in the hiring of personnel, which showed an improvement.

According to the INEI Permanent Employment Survey, between July and September about 300,000 jobs were created in metropolitan Lima, of which more than 250,000 are adequate jobs, that is, they have all the benefits of the law.

In this sense, the official said that these data represent “a great advance” in a highly informal workforce.

However, he clarified that all the jobs lost in the pandemic have not yet been recovered.

“I am dissatisfied because I know that unemployment is very high in the country and, despite these positive results, we have not yet recovered all the jobs lost in the pandemic and that hurts me,” Francke emphasized before Congress.

The word

Pedro Francke, Minister of Economy

“The survey of expectations of the BCRP that was carried out last week and that is published indicates a clear and strong recovery of business expectations.”