During the first week of 2023, the dollar has presented a constant downward trend. Along these lines, on Friday, January 6, it closed at S/3.7940, one of the largest decreases in the last six monthssince June of last year.
Although in December 2022 the North American currency also maintained a downward inclination —despite the turbulent social and political situation that the country experienced— and closed the year at S/3.8070, in October of that year it reached high peaks of up to S/4,002.
Omar Azañedo Sayan, founder of Noncash and an economist at the Universidad del Pacífico, told this medium that, at each beginning of the year, the dollar falls due to the positive outlook of each country.
“We have seen it in 2019. Even in 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic (the dollar) began to go backwards and then went up again. 2021 was similar, in 2022 too. The first days of the year the American economy is questioned a lot, the possibility of growth, its policies and the countries generate better expectations. That makes the dollar go back,” Azañedo said.
In addition, he added that the new presidential term in Peru and the announcement of new elections have improved the exchange rate.
However, the US currency remains highly volatile, mainly because the international context has not changed. Aspects such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is hurting the European economy, high inflation in the United States and the low growth expectations of world powers contribute to making the green ticket unstable.
“We cannot think that the dollar is going to start a decline. It is the product of the volatility of a moment like this, but the probability that the dollar will continue high and rise is greater than that it will go back,” Azañedo warned.
Who does the downward exchange rate favor?
The main beneficiaries of the decline in the dollar are the importing companies, those that have bills in the American currency. In addition, the citizens with obligations, rents, and who buy and maintain continuous expenses in dollars they are the most advantaged.
“Local production, or companies that import commodities, such as cement companies, which have to import clinker, and steel companies, which have to acquire scrap steel,” said Cesar Romero, from Renta 4.
On the other hand, the least favored are exporters and companies that invoice in dollars locally and abroad.
recommendations
Given the downward trend of the dollarspecialists recommend that citizens take advantage of this moment to carry out different operations, such as buying dollars.
“It is important to take advantage of these setbacks to acquire the dollars, advance your obligations or make the necessary reserves. It is also important that exchange rates be projected or budgeted so as not to fall into speculation”, indicated Azañedo Sayan.
Likewise, he stressed that it is important that people, especially those who have obligations in dollars, do not speculate about a possible continuous downward trend of the greenback and therefore lose the opportunity to acquire dollars at a lower cost.
Source: Larepublica
Kingston is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
