According to the Bilbao economist, the data from recent months suggest that next year the upward trend of the Euribor will continue. He also does not rule out that the interest rate exceeds the 3% barrier.
Euskaraz irakurri: Cuenca: “2023an Euriborra igotzen jarraitzea espero da, baina 2024rako jaitsiera aurreikus daiteke”
The economics expert Nico Cuenca has analyzed, in an interview in Euskadi Irratia, the economic forecasts for the new year and the factors that will be key. He is of the opinion that, for the moment, the scenario does not look encouraging at all: prices and interest rates will, in general, maintain the upward trend in the first months of 2023, but signs are already visible in the market that could change the trend towards the end of year.
Among others, Cuenca has referred to the Euribor, the reference indicator for most mortgages in the Spanish State, and has recalled the recent statements by the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde: “There is no doubt that the Euribor will continue going up, but the question is how much. That is, what remains to be seen is the scope of that increase.” In this sense, she has indicated that it is possible that this reference indicator exceeds the 3% barrier.
However, the Bilbao economist says that “in some markets there are already signs that predict a decline in 2024”. “It is expected that in 2023 it will continue to rise, but it is already expected that in 2024 it will begin to decline.”
Cuenca has also referred to inflation. In July, year-on-year inflation rose to 10.8%, the highest figure in the last 48 years. Since then, inflation has been falling and in December it stood at 5.8%, one point less than the previous month. For its part, subjacent inflation —which is calculated without taking into account unprocessed food and energy products— has risen to 6.9%, six tenths more than the data for November. According to the INE, this moderation is due to electricity prices, which rise less than in December 2021, as fuels register a greater decrease than last year. On the other hand, the prices of clothing and footwear decreased less than in December 2021, and those of tobacco and processed foods increased.
“You have to look at subjacent inflation. It is not usual for subjacent inflation to be above the general, but it also has its logic: food that is fresh at first is later incorporated into the production chain. Pods, for For example, they do not enter core inflation, but they do when they are sold as preserves. As headline inflation goes down, so will core inflation.”
Source: Eitb
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