Vacancy does not affect confidence or growth

Despite the political upheaval generated by the failed coup d’état by Pedro Castillo and its subsequent vacancy, The economic growth estimates for this year and 2023 will not be affected –which in their most optimistic scenarios would be 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively– (see infographic).

According to Hugo Perea, chief economist at BBVA Research, In the short term, a complete deterioration in business confidence is not expected, nor is it expected that the dollar will shoot up abruptly.

“The coup attempt fizzled out quickly. Although the dollar jumped to more than S/3.90, it quickly fell (to S/3.825). The president Dina Boluarte it must form a good cabinet, the MEF, Produce and MTPE being key. Based on that, we will have an idea of ​​how public policies will evolve and their impact on the economy for the following months, ”he said for La República.

Destiny set since before the crisis

The economist Eduardo Recoba argues that the economy Peruvian will continue its course in the remainder of the year, since before the actions of Castillo Terrones, the productive activity was already deteriorated.

It is necessary to specify that in the course of 2022 the estimates of economic development have been reduced by exogenous factors –such as global inflation– and internal factors –read, the struggles between Congress and the Government Palace–.

“The economic legacy of the coup leader Castillo is that of an extremely complicated course, but on time the situation has not moved the needle of the markets”, he added.

“Private sector on the defensive”

However, most business expectations continued to decline in November, according to data from the BCRP, to such an extent that for the next 12 months the confidence ratio of businessmen for their businesses fell from 57.4 to 54.3 units.

This, in a context where the investment The private sector will close the year with a variation of 0% –that is, stable– and by 2023 it would reach 1.8%.

“The private sector is very defensive. Growing as before at 5% or 6%, private investment would contribute one more point to GDP. We need a good business climate and a reduction in political tensions,” Perea stressed.

What should be the priorities?

Recoba agrees that private activity will operate in a very marginal range, and this is where President Dina Boluarte has the historical role to seek political and economic consensus, something “not seen in the last 16 months”, to close gaps both in the short as in the long term.

At your discretion, within the immediate economic guidelines it is necessary to bet on a correct budget management and public spending of great impact, since “spending with Castillo has been clumsy and timid”, and they are a kind of barometer against private investment through public-private associations (PPPs) and works for taxes (OxI).

In addition, there are targeted transfers instead of tax exemptions for food purchases, as well as the creation of formal and prolonged jobs, considering that the purchasing power of Peruvians has not improved in two and a half years of the pandemic.

It is worth noting that currently 10 million compatriots in the urban area develop informally and the formal spectrum fell to 4 million.

Lastly, Recoba believes that fiscal policy threatened by a “Congress totally inept in terms of public finances”.

keys

Inflation. According to Julio Velarde, president of the BCRP, the inflation it will start to fall sharply from March next year.

Back. The Confiep ratified its commitment to work hand in hand with the Government of Dina Boluarte for the “social and economic good of all”.